Additional information

EU Energy Modelling

Energy modelling in the EU Member States is based on EU Reference Scenario 2020, one of the Commission’s key projection and analysis tools for energy, transport and climate action. More: https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/energy-modelling_en.

European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum (ECEMF)

ECEMF is a Horizon 2020 funded project whose aim is to establish a European forum for energy and climate researchers and policy makers to achieve climate neutrality.

https://www.ecemf.eu/

National Energy and Climate Plans (EU Member States)

EU countries’ 10-year national energy and climate plans for 2021-2030. More:

https://secca.eu/knowledge-hub/eu-policies-and-regulations/necp/

https://commission.europa.eu/energy-climate-change-environment/implementation-eu-countries/energy-and-climate-governance-and-reporting/national-energy-and-climate-plans_en

Eurostat – Sankey diagrams for energy balance (historical years)

Sankey diagrams are (energy) flow diagrams, in which the width of the arrows is proportional to the flow rates. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/sankey/energy/sankey.html?geos=EU27_2020&year=2021&unit=KTOE&fuels=TOTAL&highlight=_&nodeDisagg=0101000000000&flowDisagg=false&translateX=0&translateY=0&scale=1&language=EN

Climate Action Tracker (CAT)

The Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement aim of “holding warming well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.” A collaboration of two organisations, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, the CAT has been providing this independent analysis to policymakers since 2009.

https://climateactiontracker.org/

Among the Central Asian countries, the information is available so far only on Kazakhstan:

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/kazakhstan/

Open Models

This page lists energy models published under open source licenses.

https://wiki.openmod-initiative.org/wiki/Open_Models

Analyses made in Central Asia

Some examples of model-based analyses in the Central Asian region (to give a sense of what can be investigated: emissions mitigation pathways, the role of hydrogen, cooperative energy strategies, energy efficiency improvements paths):

1. Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov (2024), A “risk-induced” emission mitigation pathway for Kazakhstan. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101332
2. Xi Yang, Rocco De Miglio, Gabriele Cassetti (2021), Greening China’s BRI in Central Asian Countries: The Role of Hydrogen Towards Net-Zero Future, One Earth. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3858058
3. Bakdolotov, R. De Miglio, Y. Akhmetbekov, K. Baigarin (2017). Techno-economic modelling to strategize energy exports in the Central Asian Caspian region. Heliyon, Vol3 Issue4.  DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2017.e00283
4. Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio, GianCarlo Tosato (2015). Improving Efficiency in Kazakhstan’s Energy System. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models, Springer International Publishing (DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0)
5. Rocco De Miglio, Yerbol Akhmetbekov, Kanat Baigarin, Aidyn Bakdolotov, GianCarlo Tosato (2014). Cooperation benefits of Caspian countries in their energy sector development. Energy Strategy Reviews. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2014.09.002
6. Yerbol Sarbassov, Aiymgul Kerimray, Diyar Tokmurzin, Rocco De Miglio, GianCarlo Tosato (2013). Electricity and heating system in Kazakhstan: exploring energy efficiency improvement paths. Energy Policy. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.012. 

SECCA project aims and expected outcomes

The expected outcomes of the energy modelling work under the SECCA project go beyond the pure quantitative analyses:

• improved the system-thinking and the knowledge based (data-driven) decision making;
• enhanced technical and policy dialogue among national stakeholders and among the Central Asian countries by making use of transparent and collaborative tools, and improved dialogue with the European Union by adopting similar methods and best practices in the investigation of the energy-climate pathways;
• instruments (support, capacity and tools) provided to prepare more integrated and robust action plans and strategic plans such as the Nationally Determined Contributions, National Energy and Climate Plans, National Energy Efficiency Action Plans, National Renewable Energy Action Plan, etc.;
• improved organisation and maximised utilisation of data and policy information to feed energy-climate decision support systems;
• modelling tools, analyses and trainings are prepared and delivered, and all the material developed through the project are available for reuse by others (files will be hosted on collaboration platforms, for instance, GitHub, and access will be given to all the identified beneficiaries in the region);
• training sessions are organised and interactive training materials are prepared to support the future utilisation of the project outputs;
• support is provided for the development of the analytical and methodological tools of the future EU-Central Asia Sustainable Energy Centre (CARSEC).

Read more about the SECCA project work in the field of energy modelling:

Energy transition in Power Sector: SECCA Presented Energy Scenarios for Kazakhstan

Astana, Kazakhstan, 23 November 2023.

Energy Systems Modelling

A “systemic” view is needed to ensure sustainable, resilient, accessible, and just energy systems developments. Energy system models represent the entire energy chains of the system(s) under investigation, thus, providing test-beds to explore the country-specific potentials to move towards a “sustainable” future, as well as to simulate the impact of cooperative and synergic decisions (energy-climate policy design and resource management) at an “integrated” regional level. Energy system models are used to run “scenario analyses”, often organised into wide strategic exercises to evaluate sensitivities and multiple factors.

Typical model inputs: Energy balance of the selected base year, Technology stock of the selected base year, techno-economic information for alternative/new options, socio-economic demand-drivers, policies and measures, other technical and market conditions, etc.

Typical model outputs: Electricity generation by type, Final energy consumption and primary energy supply, Technology mix and evolution over time, Greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, Investments and other costs, Trades, etc.

Typical model outputs (visuals): Sankey diagrams are (energy) flow diagrams, in which the width of the arrows is proportional to the flow rates. They help visualizing the flows of different energy forms along the energy chains (input and outputs across sectors and uses) in a particular point in time (year) and identifying the differences between different points in time (evolution) or across different scenarios (response to policy). The example below shows the diagram for a Central Asian system in 2021 (left) and the possible evolutions of the key energy flows in a deep mitigation 2050 (right), when renewables and electricity play a major role.

Introduction

Modelling is the (iterative) process of framing questions about the real-world in numerical and logical terms, of studying the questions by means of appropriate tools and techniques, of analysing the key outcomes of the studies, and providing insights and information to answer the initial questions and improve the knowledge of the phenomena under investigation.

In general, models help capturing and interpreting the complexity of the real world in an understandable form, help analysing and organising large amount of data and information in a structured manner, and help exploring different hypotheses under the same (consistent) framework.

Different real-world problems demand different interpretations, tools, and approaches.

Energy Systems Modelling – to explore future energy systems involving integrated energy and climate policies. This type of models are often used to explore different decarbonisation pathways and the role of each sector (eg power, transportation, building, industry) and each energy form (electricity, natural gas, coal, oil, hydrogen, etc.) in the transition.